Commodity Weekly 14 january 2014

S&P GSCI Total Return Index

Market has eroded the 2009-2014 uptrend.

The S&P GSCI Total Return Index has eroded the 2009-2014 uptrend at 4686 and we have seen a weekly close below here. The market has charted a new 6 month low, but this has been accompanied by a complex divergence of the daily RSI, this reflects a loss of downside momentum and we would expect to see a a short term corrective rebound.
Rallies should find initial resistance at 4732 (23.6% retracement of the move down from the August high) and potentially 4794/4805, the 200 day ma and the 38.2% retracement of the same move.
A close below 4615 would be negative and target initially the 4493.50 2013 low. Failure here will target 4442/47, the 50% retracement of the move from the 2009 low to the 2011 high and the 78.6% retracement of the move from 2012. This represents our medium term downside target.

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