Commodity Currencies Weekly Technicals 13 November 2013

NZD/USD – Daily Chart


Retests key support at .8232/.8164 which is likely to hold, but probably only in the short term


NZD/USD is currently retesting the .8232/.8164 significant support zone where the October lows, 200 day moving average and the August peak can be seen. This holds at present but this state of affairs is unlikely to continue.

Once a drop through and daily close below Tuesday’s .8169 October low has been made, our forecast of a reversal lower being formed will be confirmed.

In this case the .7800/.7683 region (June to August lows) will be back in the picture.

The first downside target below the .8164 level comes in at .8114/06. It consists of the 50% retracement and the July peak.

We need to see a fall through the .8164 level in order to change our short- and medium term forecasts to bearish. We will expect .8164 to give way while NZD/USD stays below the .8416 current November high.

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