Commodity Currencies Weekly Technicals 17 September 2013

NZD/USD – Daily Chart

Has reached the 200 day moving average around which it may soon lose upside momentum

NZD/USD’s swift rally off its .7721 late August low has so far taken it to .8232, to marginally above the 200 day moving average at .8180. We continue to believe that upside momentum will diminish around it and below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the April-to-June decline at .8298.

As long as this level does indeed cap on a daily closing basis, we will expect NZD/USD to head back down towards the .7721/.7683 major support zone which encompasses the June-to-August lows. If fallen through, our downside target zone, made up of the .7456/.7371 May 2012 low and November 2011 low, will be back in play.

Should .8298 be exceeded, however, the .8361 April low will be back in focus. Above it lies the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at .8465.
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