Commodity Currencies Weekly Technicals 31 July 2013

NZD/USD – Daily Chart

Correction higher has terminated ahead of the 3 month downtrend and resumed its longer term down move.

NZD/USD has seen 3 failures at .8107 and failed ahead of the 3 month downtrend at 0.8148. The Elliot wave count has marked this as wave ‘4’ and we look for the resumption of downside pressure. Our short term downside target is 0.7683, the June low.
We will retain our medium term bearish forecast while the currency pair stays below its .8139 June peak and the 200 day ma at .8229.
Our medium term downside target zone is made up of the .7456/.7371 May 2012 low and November 2011 low. These remain our downside targets for the months to come.
Very near term the market has found some support at the 55 day ma at 0.7941, rebounds from here are expected to remain tepid.
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