Commodity Weekly 01 October 2013

S&P GSCI Total Return Index – Daily Chart

Erosion of the 200 day ma leaves the market vulnerable

The S&P GSCI Total Return Index has started to erode its 200 day ma at 4850, and this leaves the market still vulnerable on the downside. The market recently failed just ahead of 5165/85, this is the location of the 61.8% retracement of the move down from 2011. Near term risks remain for further losses.

The breach of the 200 day ma should see prices slump to the 4 month support line at 4701. Key support remains the 4 year uptrend at 4639. We would expect to see this hold the initial test. Please note that the 200 week ma lies at 4797.
Rallies will now find initial resistance now at 5000. Only amove above 5185 would imply ongoing strength to the 5400 2012 high.
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