Commodity Weekly 08 October 2013 |
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The S&P GSCI Total Return Index is seeing some signs of stabilisation circa the 200 day ma at 4851. Currently the near term rebound is indicated to terminate circa 4950, while trading sub 5000 we will consider that the market remains vulnerable on the downside.
The market recently failed just ahead of 5165/85, this is the location of the 61.8% retracem ent of the move down from 2011. Near term risks remain for further losses.
We should see a slide back to the 4 month support line at 4710. Key support remains the 4 year uptrend at 4645. We would expect to see this hold the initial test. Please note that the 200 week ma lies at 4800.
Rallies will now find initial resistance now at 5000. Only a move above 5185 would imply ongoing strength to the 5400 2012 high.
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