Commodity Weekly 11 February 2014

S&P GSCI Total Return Index

Market has eroded the 200 day ma, but struggling to maintain upside pressure

The S&P GSCI Total Return Index has managed to clear the 200 day ma but is already looking a little tired. The Elliott wave count on the 240 minute chart is also implying failure here circa 4850/53. We look for a slide back to the 4615 January low.

A close below 4615 (recent low) would be negative and target initially the 4493.50 2013 low. Failure here will target 4442/47, the 50% retracement of the move from the 2009 low to the 2011 high and the 78.6% retracement of the move from 2012. This represents our medium term downside target.

Above 4853 (Fridays high) we will have to allow for a slightly deeper retracement (4865), this is the 50% retracement of the move down from the August peak and possibly the 4908 end of December peak.

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