Commodity Weekly 12 November 2013

S&P GSCI Total Return Index


We await a weekly close below the 4 year uptrend at 4670


The S&P GSCI Total Return Index has sold off through its 4 year uptrend at 4670, but has failed to register a weekly close below here. We view this as a premature break lower, rather than false and would allow for a near term rebound ahead of further losses.

Currently rebounds from this trend line are indicated to terminate ahead 4717/72, well ahead of the 200 day ma at 4835 and the 55 day ma at 4882.

A negative bias will persist while capped here. A weekly close below 4677 would be very negative and target initially the 4493.50 2013 low.

Only a move above 4941 (mid October high) would neutralise the chart and negate our bearish view as this would imply recovery to 5114/5185.

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