Commodity Weekly 17 February 2014 |
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The S&P GSCI Total Return Index has continued to grind higher, and is now approaching much tougher resistance offered by the 4908 December 2013 peak. This resistance is reinforced by the 4923/61.8% retracement of the move down from August. While this is expected to hold the initial test, the risk has now increased that it will be eroded for a move to the top of the converging trading range at 5026, where we suspect that it will fail.
It is considered to be well bid while it trades above the 200 day ma at 48042 and the short term uptrend at 4771. Only a move below here would alleviate immediate upside pressure enough to signal a slide back to the 4615 January low.
From a longer term perspective the market is trading in the midst of a large converging range between the limits of 4568 and 5026 and is therefore considered to be neutral.
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