Commodity Weekly 17 July 2013

S&P GSCI Total Return Index

Market is stalling at the 4943 April high and is expected to react back toward 4763 Fibo support

The S&P GSCI Total Return Index has extended its short term rally higher to reach the 50% retracement (of the move down from the September 2012 peak and the 4943 April high, where it is showing signs of failure. We are unable to rule out an extension to 5000/5017, the 61.8% retracement of the same move and the 2011-2013 resistance line, which is expected to hold the topside if seen that is.
Loss of the 4763 (38.2% retracement) is needed to alleviate immediate upside pressure. Below here would refocus attention on the 2009- 2013 uptrend at 4569.
The 4569 support line guards the 4493 2013 low and the 4442 50% retracement (of the move 2009-2011). We would expect this 4442 zone to hold the initial test. Failure to do so would see losses to 4212.50, the 2012 low.
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