Commodity Weekly 23 July 2013

S&P GSCI Total Return Index

Market is approaching the 5010 2011-2013 downtrend

The S&P GSCI Total Return Index has continued to crawl slowly higher. It is approaching the 61.8% retracement (of the move down from the September 2012 peak at 4998 and while we remain unable to rule out a test of the 2011-2013 resistance line at 5010, we look for this to hold the topside and provoke failure.
We then look for a slide back to the 200 day ma at 4835 en route to the 4787/28.2% retracement and eventually the 4611 3 month support line.
Key support remains 4585 the 2009-2013 uptrend which guards the 4493 2013 low and the 4442 50% retracement (of the move 2009-2011). We would expect this 4442 zone to hold the initial test. Failure to do so would see losses to 4212.50, the 2012 low.
A weekly close above 5010 will alter the chart to more positive (not favoured) and target the 5148 2013 high.
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