Commodity Weekly 23 October 2013

S&P GSCI Total Return Index


200 day ma eroded, risks shifting to downside


The S&P GSCI Total Return Index has been sidelined over the past few weeks but is now breaking down from the 200 day ma at 4851. Near term risks are shifting to the downside.

We suspect that the market will now remain capped by the 4990/5000 region, and we should see a slide back to the October low at 4789.

This remains the break down point to key support, which remains the 4 year uptrend at 4658. We would expect to see this hold the initial test. Please note that the 200 week ma lies at 4806.

Only a move above 5185 would imply ongoing strength to  the 5400 2012 high. Currently we are neutral to negative – the market is sidelined longer term.

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