Commodity Weekly 25 February 2014 |
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The S&P GSCI Total Return Index has taken out the 4908 December 2013 peak and the 4923/61.8% retracement of the move down from August and is now approaching the top of the converging trading range at 5019, where we suspect that it will stall and slump back into the range.
In this vicinity also lies the 78.6% retracement of the move down from August at 5007. We have a support line at 4809 and while above here there will remain an upside bias.
A break below the support line is necessary to signal a slide back to the 4615 January low.
From a longer term perspective the market is trading in the midst of a large converging range between the limits of 4576 and 5019 and is therefore considered to be neutral.
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