Commodity Weekly 30 July 2013

S&P GSCI Total Return Index

Market has reversed ahead of its 5004 2011-2013 downtrend and is under pressure in its range.

The S&P GSCI Total Return Index as expected the up move faltered ahead of the 61.8% retracement (of the move down from the September 2012 peak) at 4998 and reversed ahead of the 2011-2013 resistance line at 5004. Failure at this zone suggests that the market has topped and that we are likely to see further weakness.
We look for a slide back to the 4787/38.2% retracement and eventually the 4622 3 month support line.
Key support remains 4582 the 2009-2013 uptrend which guards the 4493 2013 low and the 4442 50% retracement (of the move 2009-2011). We would expect this 4442 zone to hold the initial test. Failure to do so would see losses to 4212.50, the 2012 low.
Only a weekly close above 5004 will alter the chart to more positive (not favoured) and target the 5148 2013 high.
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