Commodity Weekly 30 October 2013

S&P GSCI Total Return Index


Held initial test of 6 month uptrend.


The S&P GSCI Total Return Index has sold off towards and recovered just ahead of the 6 month uptrend at 4738.

Rallies are indicated to terminate circa 4848/77. We suspect that the market will now remain capped by the 4990/5000 region, and we should see a retest of the 4738 6 month uptrend.

This remains the break down point to key support, which remains the 4 year uptrend at 4664. We would expect to see this hold the initial test.

Only a move above 5185 would imply ongoing strength to the 5400 2012 high. Currently we are neutral to negative – the market is sidelined longer term. A weekly close below the 4 year uptrend would be required to alter this.

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