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CS Outlook january 2014 |
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Following the renewed decline of broad commodity indices in 2013, we forecast a general bottoming for the first half of 2014 and a price rise, particularly in base and precious metals, by year-end. At the same time, we see only little upside potential in crude oil and most agricultural commodities. The differentiation within the commodity sector, i.e. the differences in price movements, should thus remain considerable. This is because alongside factors relevant to all commodity markets, such as economic developments in China, investor behaviour and central bank policy, sector-specific factors above all will come to the fore.
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