FX Alpha 27 August 2013 |
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EUR-USD remains above 1.33 due to doubts about ECB ́s forward guidance and disappointing US data. The fact that further aid for Greece has reached the German election campaign is unlikely to pressure the cross. However, due to the impressive return of EUR longs the downside seems vulnerable.
The FX market did not really take the ECB’s forward guidance seriously and there are increasing doubts about an imminent Fed tapering following the latest disastrous US macro data (new home sales, durable goods orders). Against this backdrop EUR-USD continues to trade above 1.33 even though it is still obvious that the two most important central banks will soon move into opposite directions. Is it possible that EUR-USD will now come under pressure on a different front? The debate about further aid for Greece is certainly gathering momentum and has also reached the German election campaign after German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble mentioned a third aid package. While another aid package is pretty likely, most of the finance ministers are opposing a renewed haircut due to concerns about the bond market reaction.
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