FX Emerging Markets Weekly 03 March 2014

EUR/PLN – Daily Chart


Bounces off the 4.1517/4.1283 support zone and could reach the 200 dma at 4.2138


EUR/PLN’s sharp decline from its 4.2648 January high has taken it all the way back to the 4.1397 level before bouncing back to 4.1905 last week.

This level and the January 10 high at 4.1926 we expect to be overcome this week with the 200 day moving average at 4.2138 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the June- to-December decline at 4.2209 being targeted.

We remain neutral while the 4.1517/4.1283 major support area underpins. It is where the September, November, December and January lows were made.

While the currency pair stays sidelined between the 4.2209 and 4.1283 levels on a daily chart closing basis our view will remain neutral.

For now unexpected failure at the 4.1283 December low, would put the April 2013 trough at 4.0928 and the December 2012 low at 4.0541 back on the map.

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