FX Emerging Markets Weekly 06 January 2014

EUR/PLN – Daily Chart

Bounces off the 2012-13 support line and remains sidelined above its December 4.1283 low

EUR/PLN is about to break through its five month resistance line at 4.1695 and the 55 day moving average at 4.1806 this week.

A rise above the next higher 4.1905 December 18 high will put the 200 day moving average and the 2013-14 resistance line at 4.2085/4.2115 back on the map.

While the currency pair remains below the next higher 4.2204/09 November high and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the June-to-December decline but above its December trough at 4.1283 we will retain our medium term neutral outlook.

Only if a daily close below 4.1283 were to be made, would we change our medium term outlook to a bearish one with the 4.0928 April 2013 low and probably also the 4.0541/4.0284 August and December 2012 lows being back in the picture. For now we retain a neutral view.

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