FX Emerging Markets Weekly 09 December 2013

EUR/PLN – Daily Chart

Drifts back towards the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 4.1523 and thus remains sidelined

EUR/PLN is drifting back down towards the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the April-to-June rise at 4.1523.
As long as it, the November low at 4.1517 and the 4.1443 September low underpin, further sideways trading remains on the cards. We will retain our short term slightly bearish view while the 200 day moving average at 4.2082 and the November peak at 422.04 cap.
If bettered, the 50% retracement and the late September high at 4.2318/4.2403 could be reached, though.
Further range trading should be seen into year end with the currency pair expected to stay below the 4.3098 September high. As long as this is the case the odds favour a retest of the September low at 4.1443 at some stage. Failure there on a weekly basis will mean that a top has been formed with the 200 week moving average at 4.1210 then being in focus.
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