FX Emerging Markets Weekly 13 january 2014

EUR/PLN – Daily Chart

Drops back towards its December 4.1283 low which should continue to underpin

EUR/PLN’s post non-farm payroll data decline has practically taken it back to the September low at 4.1443 around which it tries to stabilise.
While the currency pair remains above the next lower December trough at 4.1283 we will retain our medium term neutral outlook.
Only if a daily close below 4.1283 were to be made, would we change our medium term outlook to a bearish one with the 4.0928 April 2013 low and probably also the 4.0541/4.0284 August and December 2012 lows being back in the picture.
Resistance is seen between the 55 day moving average at 4.1796 and Friday’s high at 4.1926 and also between the
2013-14 resistance line and the 200 day moving average at 4.2059/85.
For now we keep a neutral view.
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