FX Emerging Markets Weekly 16 December 2013

EUR/PLN – Daily Chart

Stays sidelined above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 4.1523

EUR/PLN is still hovering above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the April-to-June rise at 4.1523 but continues to be sidelined.
As long as 4.1523, the November low at 4.1517 and the 4.1443 September low underpin, further sideways trading remains on the cards. We will retain our short term slightly bearish view while the 200 day moving average at 4.2092 and the November peak at 4.2204 cap.
If bettered, the 50% retracement and the late September high at 4.2318/4.2403 could be reached, though.
Further range trading should be seen into year end with the currency pair expected to stay below the 4.3098 September high. As long as this is the case, the odds favour a retest of the September low at 4.1443 at some stage. Failure there on a weekly basis will mean that a top has been formed with the 200 week moving average at 4.1241 then being in focus.

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