FX Emerging Markets Weekly 16 September 2013 |
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Last week’s EUR/PLN decline was more impulsive than we had anticipated which is why we have neutralised our medium term forecast and changed our short term one to being bearish.
The significant 4.1807/4.1698 support area is expected to be probed this week. It consists of the August low, 2008-13 uptrend line and the 55 week moving average.
Failure there would put the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the April-to-June rise at 4.1523 and also the 200 week moving average at 4.1175 on the map. If the latter level were to be also fallen through, the April trough at 4.0928 will again be in focus.
We will maintain our short term bearish forecast while EUR/PLN remains below the 55 day moving average at 4.2495 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 4.2646. Key for the medium term trend is the 4.3098 current September peak.
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