FX Emerging Markets Weekly 18 November 2013

EUR/PLN – Daily Chart


Drifts back towards the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 4.1523 and thus remains sidelined


EUR/PLN is drifting back down towards the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the April-to-June rise at 4.1523.

As long as the current November low at 4.1517 and the 4.1443 September low underpin, the 200- and 55-day moving averages at 4.2037/57 should be retested.

If bettered, the 50% retracement and the late September high at 4.2318/4.2403 will be back in the picture as well.

Further range trading should be seen into year end with the currency pair expected to stay below the 4.3098 September high.

As long as this is the case the odds favour a retest of the September low at 4.1443 at some stage. Failure there on a weekly basis will mean that a top has been formed with the 200 week moving average at 4.1210 then being in focus. It should be reached by the end of the first quarter of 2014.

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