FX Emerging Markets Weekly 24 February 2014 |
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EUR/PLN’s sharp decline from its 4.2648 January high has taken it all the way back to the 4.1397 level before bouncing back to 4.1866 last week, only to then slip back to the 4.1500 region.
We thus remain neutral while the 4.1517/4.1283 major support area continues to hold. It is where the September, November, December and January lows were made.
Minor resistance is seen around the 4.1926 January 10 high with more resistance being seen between the 200 day moving average at 4.2143 and the November peak and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the June-to-December decline at 4.2204/09.
While the currency pair stays sidelined between the 4.2209 and 4.1283 levels on a daily chart closing basis our view will remain neutral. Failure at 4.1283, would put the April 2013 low at 4.0928 and the December 2012 low at 4.0541 back on the map, though.
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