FX Week 31 March 2013

FX Week

EUR/USD closed out Q1 below key levels

EUR/USD closed the month and the quarter at 1.2819, well below its 200-day moving average (MA) signaling that the downside is likely to remain pressured. Indeed with its 10-day MA now crossing below the 200 day and with the 30 day MA also fast approaching it, the chances are growing of another lurch towards our 1 and 3-month forecasts of 1.27 and 1.25 respectively in coming weeks (see chart below). As Q2 gets underway the week is likely to begin slowly especially against the background of long weekends in western markets, but central bank meetings in Europe and Asia will quickly assume the most significance, whilst in the US the focus will fall on the jobs data at the end of the week.
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