strat 04 September 2013

FX – The Euro has come under pressure and we would prepare for further weakness

EUR/GBP has severed its 2012-2013 uptrend

EUR/GBP came under increasing downside pressure throughout August and this has culminated in a break below the 2012-2013 up trend at 0.8523. We have seen the market head back to its 200 day ma at 0.8481 and while it is possible that we will see some consolidation around this zone, the recent move lower has been damaging.
The market appears to have recently failed at the top of a 4 year down channel, which is currently located at .8750. This coupled with the break of the 2012-2013 uptrend is viewed as extremely negative from a longer term perspective.

Beyond some consolidation, the risks have increased that we will see further weakness. The initial downside target is the 0.8399/0.8367 zone, this is the low that we saw in April and the 200 week moving average. Just above here at .8402 is the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the 0.7757. This .8402/0.8366 zone is expected to act as a major break down zone. Failure here will trigger losses to 0.8155 and eventually head back to the 2012 low at 0.7757 and potentially to the base of the channel, currently at 0.7590. The 2012 low of approximately 0.7750 is achievable by the end of 2014.

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