Strategy 22 July 2013

Strategic Technical Themes

US Dollar a mixed bag but AUD/USD just holding sideways – maintain a longer term negative stance

AUD/USD has held broadly sideways for over one month – this serves the purpose of neutralising the momentum indicators and giving time for the market to absorb its losses. While capped by key resistance at .9388/.9404 (the 2011 low and highs from 2009 and 2010) and while capped here our negative bias is entrenched. To trigger another leg lower we suspect that the market will need to sustain a break back below .9000.
Short term we note that the intraday charts are suggesting that the current correction will extend to the .9400 region, but should then struggle. Longer term the close below .9147 which has been seen recently is bearish and we consider that the next target of .8550 is engaged.
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