Strategy 27 November 2013

EUR/USD outlook is negative


Favour failure circa 1.3600/13


EUR/USD despite a strong rebound to end the week, the market has not done enough to shake off the negative vibe given by the key day reversal charted on Wednesday. As a consequence the recent high at 1.3584 is still viewed as an intermediate peak. We look for the 1.3295/94 zone to be retested (current November low and the 50% retracement of the move up from July) and would again allow for this to hold the initial test.

Note that the market has recently eroded its 4 month uptrend and appears to be developing a potential rising wedge pattern. This will complete on a close below 1.3440 and target initially 1.3177, which is in close proximity to the 61.8% retracement at 1.3166. If we utilise the move down from October and measure down a move of equal magnitude this would offer a potential target of 1.2892.

To know more click here PDF